Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
